Delphi Technique is a carefully designed program of sequential, individual interrogations interspersed with information feedback on the opinions expressed by the other participants in previous rounds.
The following are steps associated with this technique:
Define and refine the issue or question
The group targeted for forecasting must be well defined so relevant, focused and detail feedback can be derived.
Identify the experts, terms, and time horizon
A team is selected that are deemed experts with respect to personnel grouping that requires forecast, both parties must meet an agreement on terms and conditions for participation and setting contact and explicitly defining nature of the work.
Orient the experts
Identifying relevant time horizons & clarifying which personnel groups are of interest, overview of the demand fare casting decision process.
Issue the first round questionnaire
Questionnaire sent with time frame for completion and return. It focuses on defining explicit assumptions made by each expert and background rationale supporting.
Issue the first round questionnaire summary and the second round of questionnaires
Aim of second questionnaire focus experts’ initial assumptions by providing feedback from all members
Continue issuing questionnaire
Continue issue questionnaire until either all predetermined questionnaire stages been complete and summarized or group reaches a clear majority decision.